2012 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

June 1, 2011 at 3:37 pm 7 comments

One of the keys to drafting in Fantasy Football is to follow your board and a board that you trust.  Within that board, it is important to breakdown the talent into different tiers.  For QBs, I suppose you could break it down into three levels: every week starter, 75% starters, and 50% starts who depend on their matchup.  The last two years I have avoided drafting top 5 QBs and have tried (and succeeded) by drafting two top 10 QBs in the middle of the draft.

It is still early, these are preliminary rankings since free agency hasn’t occurred yet and many factors needs to be determined.  Nevertheless, here are my Top 20 QBs for the 2011-12 Fantasy Football season.

100%

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Michael Vick
3. Drew Brees
4. Peyton Manning
5. Phillip Rivers
6. Tom Brady

Comments:  Rodgers is universally viewed as the number one QB, for good reason after last season, getting Finley back and upgrading the line.  A refocused run game should loosen things up for Brees. Philly has upgraded the OL and Vick should feel more comfortable against tough fronts in year two.  Some drop from 3 to 4, but not worried about Peyton’s off-season surgery.  Think Patriots will have a lot more rushing TDs than in the past with their new backs.  Chargers are loaded at WR but he’ll have to see who they keep.

75%

7. Ben Roethlisberger
8. Matt Ryan
9. Matt Schaub
10. Matt Stafford
11. Tony Romo
12. Eli Manning
13. Joe Flacco

Comments:  Stafford certainly has a ton of potential, but is risk of a risk who should be backed up with someone reliable.  Flacco’s schedule looks really advantageous and Matty Ice’s squad should look to open things up in 2011. Giants may struggle in the run game, forcing Eli to throw a lot again.

50%

14. Sam Bradford
15. Josh Freeman
16. Matt Cassel
17. Ryan Fitzpatrick
18. Jay Cutler
19. Tim Tebow
20. David Garrard

Comments:  Cassel’s schedule gets harder and he lost Charlie Weis, nevertheless the addition of Baldwin and the development of Moeaki & McCluster has the future looking bright.  Freeman took advantage of an easy schedule to pad 2010 stats and the lockout has to be hurting his young offense (although he and Blount have been working out).  Meanwhile, I don’t really like Bradford’s schedule upon inspection.

TBD: McNabb, Orton, Kolb, Palmer, Hasselbeck

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Predicting Madden 2012 Player Ratings: Rookie WRs 2011 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings

7 Comments Add your own

  • 1. kevin  |  June 1, 2011 at 5:15 pm

    Tebow in the top 20, hell ya!!

    I was doing some stat digging on my ff site the other day. The top 5 QB’s for 2010 broke 400 points over 17 games. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rivers Rodgers. The 5 everyone mentions when asked to pick the top one, so annoying. In my league (6pt pass/rush TD) those 5 we’re only separated by 23 points. Basically if you had any of them you had a shot to win it all and you wouldn’t bitch having any fall to you this coming year either. So i looked back every year to 2005, and the number of QB’s to top 400 steadily drops, to zero in 05. No surprise in this pass happy league, and i don’t think it takes a genius to see that number going up in 2011/12. There we’re a few QB’s that would have damn near broke 400 (Big Ben for one) and two that would have shattered it (Vick, Romo) if they played a full season, and a few i could really see popping the 400 cherry (Freeman, Ryan) this coming year. Hell i think Fitzpatrick playing 16 games could come close to 400.

    I’ve shifted a lot of the priority in my mind away from WR’s this coming year (whenever it comes) because there the easiest position to find on the wire, and even the stud WR’s can get shut down any given week if they have a shutdown CB on them. I too last year took two top 10 QBs in the middle of the draft, but was initially thinking of making sure i had one of the stud QB’s this year. Not so much anymore though, unless one fell to me at great value of course. I’m thinking lean heavy on RB early, grab one or two QB’s in that 75% tier that have a good shot at busting 400, then look to WR in round 4-5.

    Reply
  • 2. NFL Football Now  |  June 1, 2011 at 8:11 pm

    Some quick responses:
    -Tebow’s running and TD potential are great
    -Traditionally QB is not a difference making position, in terms of the difference in points scored. Although Rodgers could go really high this year.
    -Really good work with the stats. Next update I will post PPG last year and projections.
    -As I mentioned lockout and schedule holding me back on Freeman, although I rode him in the playoffs last year.
    -Same can be said of the ultimate band-aid in Fitzpatrick. AFC has some tough secondaries. Expect Spiller to have a bigger year and them to more competitive, decreasing his late game output.
    -I like your strategy for QBs. Typically, I’ll only take an elite QB if he falls to me, like Rivers last year on one team. But for the most part I wait until rounds 7-10 to pick QB(s).
    -Over the last two years, I’ve made it a priority to grab a top 7 WR in the first three rounds. Last year Jennings and White were two guys who were really valuable.
    -Your right, WR is the easiest position to fill, save for maybe TEs now. In my mind you have to have at least four receivers who can score double digit points on any given sunday. If you can’t tell, I love playing the matchups.

    Reply
  • 3. kevin  |  June 2, 2011 at 2:05 am

    WR is really where you have to play the match-ups each week too. So many stick to, or better yet get stuck on names i should say. Especially late in the year, folks get scared to make a change, and at WR it’s really not the right call IMO. You gotta be so fluid there. Few ever say ‘sit Wayne this week’, when it needs to be said.

    Last year i traded Fitz and Barber week 4 or so, for Charles right before he started to go off, to someone in need of a WR and who i knew would get stuck on the big names. I rode that and another trade for Vick to the title.

    We only start 2 WR, 2 RB’s, no flex, and only have 14 draft rounds in my yearly league, so no need for 4 WR’s there, but i plan to get into a high stakes league this year, one of those online ones so it’ll probably be PPR, and salary based wire system. I would really prefer a FCFS wire league but can’t find any, know any? So anyway, i like the idea of loading up more on WR’s in that situation.

    You said traditionally QB isn’t a difference making position. In my league (6pt passing and rushing QB TD mind you) this is the difference in points from rank 2-11 for each position, 2010 year.

    QB 2-11 = 100.9 difference
    RB 2-11 = 86.1 difference
    WR 2-11 = 66.1 difference

    So QB is technically where it’s most important to have a stud, the drop off is more, but we only start 1 where as we start 2 WR and 2 RB so i don’t know…

    This part of pre draft work is always where i feel most lost in placing value, and picking what pos is more important to go to. If you ask me who to pick rd 6 pick 11, i’ll have a belief as to why i think player X is going to do better then player Y, but when you’re not starting the same amount of players at that position, i don’t know.

    Starting last year i made a top 200 player list before my draft, really boned up on all there current situations, and as i said, won the title. So Im looking to do it again this year, it really made me feel relaxed and much more sure going into my draft, and i would say i hit on my first 7 picks because of it. I want to improve my draft prep even more this year though. I move players around my board all the time, but i never really feel like on draft day I’m going to know when its right to say, ‘ok at this point i more valuable to go with this position not this position’.

    Thoughts?

    Reply
    • 4. NFL Football Now  |  June 7, 2011 at 9:45 am

      I apologize for the late response. I wrote a reply and thought I sent it, but clearly did not so here we go again…
      -You’re absolutely right, maybe the #1 FFB mistake is not playing the matchups with your WRs. No guts, no glory.
      -QB does make a difference in your league with 6 pt TDs, my mistake in the last response. In that situation, targeting the top 6 makes sense.
      -I can’t recommend a fantasy league along those lines, with a salary based wire system. I’m usually in five+ leagues, but this year I want to step the competition up in a big way and will be looking for the best. Should probably do a post after some inspection on the best leagues to join.
      -Placing value has to be one of the hardest parts of the draft. You have to plan where you will take your targets and know when they are getting picked, as well as following the pulse of your draftroom to foresee the direction the draft is going. Strong RBs is the foundation of any good FFB team. I’m thinking about doing a RB strategy post later on, because there a certain backs I won’t draft no matter what. And on my board, I note the ease or difficulty of playoff schedules (in color) to go along with what i know of their condition, situation, and prospects in my head. In recent years with sleepers like Mike Williams, I have picked them ahead of my projection when I’m comfortable to make sure I landed him.

      Reply
    • 5. Jetsyn  |  June 23, 2011 at 9:09 pm

      Unbelievable how well-wtirten and informative this was.

      Reply
  • 6. Dee Alford  |  July 7, 2011 at 8:56 pm

    They should arrest the person whoever made this list fitzpatrick in the top twenty jason campbell and david mcnabb in the top twenty fitzpatrick wasn’t in the top players of one hundred

    Reply
  • 7. touchdown fumbles  |  August 22, 2011 at 2:46 pm

    Nice post. I was checking continuously this blog and I’m inspired! Very helpful information.

    Reply

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